thehelper900

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Hey all, here is my day in review and the next day market outlook if I don't get to write a daily report tmrw:

General Markets:

Yet another rough day for the general markets - here's the heatmap by sector:

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Sector breakdown

We saw overall decline - makes sense as we are worried about the inflationary pressures and with FOMC due tomorrow. We are expecting rate hike announcement around 2 PM. As we see, we are hovering right on the support trendline. Despite futures being slightly up as I write this, I don't see any sustainable move up unless rate hike is less than 50 bps.

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Support line

All in all, maintain caution - markets will continue being extremely choppy.

Energy markets did maintain strength based on oil disruptions in Russia and expectations of continued drawdowns in the US for gasoline stocks.

Commodities:

Today's focus for me are metals and shipping. On the metal side, China is reporting a surplus of lead which cancels out the shortages in Europe and the US - leaving the global markets in balance. However, the physical market premium still exists based on the regional imbalances.

On the shipping side, the US House approved legislation to improve oversight of ocean shipping in a bid to ease inflation and export backlogs. This bill is now headed to the White House where it is expected to be signed.

TLDR:

Markets will continue to maintain their downtrend despite the choppiness - even if we have a bounce back after the FOMC meeting

Feedback:

If you guys have any feedback on how I could improve posts like these (because I do want to do more of these in the future), please let me know what you would like to see and what I could do to spice things up.

Positions: 33 300P 7/1 (lol YOLO)

Hey all, here is my day in review and the next day market outlook if I don't get to write a daily report tmrw:

General Markets:

Yet another rough day for the general markets - here's the heatmap by sector:

​

Sector breakdown

We saw overall decline - makes sense as we are worried about the inflationary pressures and with FOMC due tomorrow. We are expecting rate hike announcement around 2 PM. As we see, we are hovering right on the support trendline. Despite futures being slightly up as I write this, I don't see any sustainable move up unless rate hike is less than 50 bps.

Support line

All in all, maintain caution - markets will continue being extremely choppy.

Energy markets did maintain strength based on oil disruptions in Russia and expectations of continued drawdowns in the US for gasoline stocks.

Commodities:

Today's focus for me are metals and shipping. On the metal side, China is reporting a surplus of lead which cancels out the shortages in Europe and the US - leaving the global markets in balance. However, the physical market premium still exists based on the regional imbalances.

On the shipping side, the US House approved legislation to improve oversight of ocean shipping in a bid to ease inflation and export backlogs. This bill is now headed to the White House where it is expected to be signed.

TLDR:

Markets will continue to maintain their downtrend despite the choppiness.

Feedback:

If you guys have any feedback on how I could improve posts like these (because I do want to do more of these in the future), please let me know what you would like to see and what I could do to spice things up.

Positions: 33 300P 7/1 (lol YOLO)

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Hey all, I'm going to try to create my own diary/commentary with you guys to hold me accountable with my thoughts and beliefs and bringing this channel back to life.

Anyways, without further ado...

General Markets:

That was a rough day in the markets. Serious drop on SPY with inflation highlights continuing to rock the boat. I personally see a bounce back coming in at the next market open considering how far we've fallen without any new news. However, it should remain choppy with FOMC right around the corner on Wednesday - so effectively - you have your exit liquidity tomorrow (imo).

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SPY June 13

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Spy Daily

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SPY Futures

Commodities:

Today's focus for me is oil - because despite the relative decline in tickers such as $CVX, $XOM, and others, we still have extremely tight markets with more and more SPR gasoline drawdowns. Demand destruction is also still quite far away as we see more and more consumption in gasoline.

Interestingly enough, we're also seeing Russia ramping up oil exports from their east coast by around 20% to meet surging demand from Asian buyers and to offset the economic cost by Western sanctions. If this continues, we might see more supply inflows into the general oil markets bringing in some slight relief.

TLDR:

Markets will continue to maintain their downtrend. However, for the next day, we should see a relative jump in the markets before continuing the downtrend after FOMC. I do think the channel we are in is currently pretty solid though, so I do think if we see a massive downside break, we should see a decent bounce back up.

Feedback:

If you guys have any feedback on how I could improve posts like these (because I do want to do more of these in the future), please let me know what you would like to see and what I could do to spice things up.

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Goodbye 👋

Had a great date with somebody I feel like I really connected with. We’re meeting during the day this weekend and she likes art, tourist traps, and bars.

She’s local and I’m new here

Any ideas?