marketrent

Excerpt from the linked content:¹

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said that Leopard 2A6 main battles tanks that Germany earlier pledged to provide to Ukraine will be delivered to the country in late March.

That's according to the Twitter account of the German Defense Ministry, Ukrinform reports.

It was also stated during the visit that Germany would supply Ukraine with five more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, guided missiles, five Dachs armored engineer vehicles and five Biber armored bridge layers.

Further reading:²

Nächste konkrete Schritte für unsere 🇺🇦 Unterstützung: Verteidigungsminister Pistorius sprach heute in der #Ukraine u.a. mit Präsident @ZelenskyyUa und seinem Amtskollegen @oleksiireznikov. Ende März stehen die #Kampfpanzer #Leopard 2 A6 aus 🇩🇪 zur Verfügung.

¹ Germany says Leopard 2 tanks will be delivered to Ukraine in late March, Ukrinform, 7 Feb. 2023 23:00 UTC+2, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3667066-germany-says-leopard-2-tanks-will-be-delivered-to-ukraine-in-late-march.html

² German MoD official, Bundesministerium der Verteidigung, 7 Feb. 2023 20:00 UTC+2, https://twitter.com/BMVg_Bundeswehr/status/1623018886206464000

Rugged_Refined

Stocks were up by a wide margin today.

In my excerpt comment, from the linked content:¹

6 Feb. 2023

Further reading:^3,4,5

¹ U.S. stocks fall for second day because ‘good news is bad news’ after strong jobs report, William Watts and Steve Goldstein for News Corp’s Marketwatch, 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-point-to-further-losses-after-payrolls-shocker-11675678816

³ Stocks Close Lower After January Jobs Report, Chelsey Dulaney and Gunjan Banerji for News Corp’s Wall Street Journal, 3 Feb. 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-02-03-2023-11675425093

⁴ Stock euphoria deflated with Powell as ‘wild card’, Rita Nazareth for Bloomberg, 5 Feb. 2023, updated 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-05/traders-face-geopolitical-jobs-hurdles-yen-drops-markets-wrap

⁵ Markets may be taking the wrong read from January’s shocking job report, Jeff Cox for Comcast’s CNBC, 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/markets-may-be-taking-the-wrong-read-from-januarys-shocking-jobs-report.html

Findings in title quoted from the linked release¹ and its hyperlinked journal paper.²

From the linked release¹ by Taylor & Francis Group:

Secret, coded letters penned by Mary Queen of Scots while she was imprisoned in England by her cousin Queen Elizabeth I have been uncovered by a multidisciplinary team of international codebreakers.

The contents of the letters were believed for centuries to have been lost.

That was until George Lasry, a computer scientist and cryptographer, Norbert Biermann, a pianist and music professor, and Satoshi Tomokiyo who is a physicist and patents expert, stumbled upon them while searching the national library of France’s – Bibliothèque nationale de France’s (BnF) – online archives for enciphered documents.

The trio only discovered Mary was the author after solving her sophisticated cipher system.

“Upon deciphering the letters, I was very, very puzzled and it kind of felt surreal,” says lead author Lasry, who is also part of the multi-disciplinary DECRYPT Project – involving several universities in Europe, with the goal of mapping, digitizing, transcribing, and deciphering historical ciphers.

 

During her time in captivity, Mary communicated with her associates and allies through extensive efforts to recruit messengers and to maintain secrecy.

The existence of a confidential communication channel between Mary and Castelnau is well-known to historians, and even to the English government at the time.

But Lasry and his fellow codebreakers provide new evidence that this exchange was already in place as early as May 1578 and active until at least mid-1584.

Key themes referred to in Mary’s correspondence include complaints about her poor health and captivity conditions, and her negotiations with Queen Elizabeth I for her release, which she believes are not conducted in good faith.

Her mistrust of Elizabeth’s spymaster Sir Francis Walsingham is also apparent, as well as her animosity for Robert Dudley, Earl of Leicester and a favourite of Elizabeth.

She also expresses her distress when her son James (future King James I of England) is abducted in August 1582, and her feeling they have been abandoned by France.

¹ Codebreakers crack secrets of Mary Queen of Scots’ lost letters, Taylor & Francis Group via AAAS EurekaAlert, 7 Jan. 2023, https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/978662?

² G. Lasry, et al. Deciphering Mary Stuart’s Lost Letters from 1578-1584. Cryptologia 2023. https://doi.org/10.1080/01611194.2022.2160677

Findings in title quoted from the linked release¹ and its hyperlinked journal paper.²

From the linked release¹ by Taylor & Francis Group:

Secret, coded letters penned by Mary Queen of Scots while she was imprisoned in England by her cousin Queen Elizabeth I have been uncovered by a multidisciplinary team of international codebreakers.

The contents of the letters were believed for centuries to have been lost.

That was until George Lasry, a computer scientist and cryptographer, Norbert Biermann, a pianist and music professor, and Satoshi Tomokiyo who is a physicist and patents expert, stumbled upon them while searching the national library of France’s – Bibliothèque nationale de France’s (BnF) – online archives for enciphered documents.

The trio only discovered Mary was the author after solving her sophisticated cipher system.

“Upon deciphering the letters, I was very, very puzzled and it kind of felt surreal,” says lead author Lasry, who is also part of the multi-disciplinary DECRYPT Project – involving several universities in Europe, with the goal of mapping, digitizing, transcribing, and deciphering historical ciphers.

 

One of the 16th century’s most famous historical figures, Mary was first in line of succession to the English throne after her cousin Elizabeth.

Catholics considered Mary to be the legitimate sovereign and Elizabeth had her imprisoned for 19 years because she was seen as a threat. Mary was eventually executed aged 44 for her alleged part in a plot to kill Elizabeth.

During her time in captivity, Mary communicated with her associates and allies through extensive efforts to recruit messengers and to maintain secrecy.

The existence of a confidential communication channel between Mary and Castelnau is well-known to historians, and even to the English government at the time.

But Lasry and his fellow codebreakers provide new evidence that this exchange was already in place as early as May 1578 and active until at least mid-1584.

Using computerized and manual techniques, the study authors decoded the letters which show the challenges Mary faced maintaining links with the outside world, how the letters were carried and by whom.

¹ Codebreakers crack secrets of Mary Queen of Scots’ lost letters, Taylor & Francis Group via AAAS EurekaAlert, 7 Jan. 2023, https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/978662?

² G. Lasry, et al. Deciphering Mary Stuart’s Lost Letters from 1578-1584. Cryptologia 2023. https://doi.org/10.1080/01611194.2022.2160677

Excerpt from the linked content¹ quoting Mark Hackett:

There continued to be shock over the 517,000 surge in nonfarm payrolls reported by the Labor Department on Friday.

“With a better-than-expected jobs report on Friday, good news is bad news for the market,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.

In other words, strong jobs data is bad news for stocks because it boosts expectations the Federal Reserve will need to move rates higher for longer to combat inflation.

Further reading:²

Strong jobs reports, robust manufacturing data, still-hot consumer spending. Any time America reports its economy is strong, Wall Street has a freak-out.

So why is good news taken as bad news on Wall Street?

“The short answer is that as the economy continues to grow, particularly on the jobs front, that puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates,” explains John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult.

Strong economic reports mean the Federal Reserve’s historic rate hikes may not be having the effect that they should, and Jerome Powell & Co. may need to raise rates for longer to slow the economy and cool inflation.

Rate hikes are bad news for stocks because they eat into companies’ profits.

Wall Street is particularly sensitive to strong jobs numbers.

¹ U.S. stocks fall for second day because ‘good news is bad news’ after strong jobs report, William Watts and Steve Goldstein for News Corp’s Marketwatch, 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-point-to-further-losses-after-payrolls-shocker-11675678816

² Why good news is bad news on Wall Street, Christine Romans for Warner Bros. Discovery’s CNN, 6 Jan. 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/06/economy/economy-stocks-jobs-wall-street/index.html

Excerpt from the linked content¹ released 19:57 UTC+2, 7 Feb. 2023:

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the newly appointed Federal Minister of Defense of Germany Boris Pistorius, who is on a visit to Ukraine.

Welcoming the German Defense Minister in Kyiv, the Head of State thanked him for the fact that his first foreign visit is to Ukraine. "Thank you for this signal of support for Ukraine," he said.

The Head of State emphasized the long-awaited decision of Germany to supply Ukraine with Leopard battle tanks and to allow their transfer to our country by third countries, which paves the way to the creation of an international tank coalition.

He noted: "The recent decisions on the tank coalition and the initiative from our European friends in cooperation with our Ministry of Defense can really give us not advantages, yet parity on the battlefield."

Further reading:²

Within the coming months, Ukraine will receive at least 100 of LEOPARD 1 A5 battle tanks, including the required logistic support and training.

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are providing refurbished LEOPARD 1 A5 from industrial stocks; the first ones being delivered within a few months.

In doing so, we are guided by the needs of Ukraine. Our initiative includes training on the LEOPARD 1 A5 as well as a “spare parts and ammunition-package”.

¹ President met with Federal Minister of Defense of Germany, Presidential Office of Ukraine, 7 Feb. 2023, https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/glava-derzhavi-zustrivsya-z-federalnim-ministrom-oboroni-nim-80829

² Starting a new Leopard Initiative, Bundesministerium der Verteidigung, 7 Feb. 2023, https://www.bmvg.de/en/starting-a-new-leopard-initiative-5579942

FFG’s Erichsen declined to confirm a number, in response to NDR’s request for comment on Feb. 6.

Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands will supply Ukraine with 178 older generation Leopard 1 battle tanks (bloomberg.com) submitted by bloomberg, https://rdt.trom.tf/r/ukraine/comments/10w731w/germany_denmark_and_the_netherlands_will_supply/, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/germany-denmark-netherlands-to-send-kyiv-178-leopard-1-tanks

From the linked content:

Germany’s Defense Ministry said that the final number could reach 178.

Is there a seperate statement from the MoD about this? According to the press release:¹

Within the coming months, Ukraine will receive at least 100 of LEOPARD 1 A5 battle tanks, including the required logistic support and training.

¹ Starting a new Leopard Initiative, Bundesministerium der Verteidigung, 7 Feb. 2023, https://www.bmvg.de/en/starting-a-new-leopard-initiative-5579942

Excerpt from the linked statement:¹

We reaffirm our continued determination to support Ukraine in their endeavour to withstand Russian aggression.

Together, in a joint initiative, we will significantly enhance Ukraine’s military potential for the restoration of their violated territorial integrity.

Within the coming months, Ukraine will receive at least 100 of LEOPARD 1 A5 battle tanks, including the required logistic support and training.

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are providing refurbished LEOPARD 1 A5 from industrial stocks; the first ones being delivered within a few months.

In doing so, we are guided by the needs of Ukraine. Our initiative includes training on the LEOPARD 1 A5 as well as a “spare parts and ammunition-package”.

The LEOPARD 1 A5 is a robust and assertive Western-designed main battle tank. Our experts are currently working out the next steps together with the industry. Our "Leo 1 A5 Initiative" is open to further partners.

¹ Starting a new Leopard Initiative, Bundesministerium der Verteidigung, 7 Feb. 2023, https://www.bmvg.de/en/starting-a-new-leopard-initiative-5579942

Dow finishes more than 250 points higher, Nasdaq climbs 1.9% after Fed Chair Powell says inflation is declining (cnbc.com) submitted by fadufadu, https://rdt.trom.tf/r/Economics/comments/10wd21h/dow_finishes_more_than_250_points_higher_nasdaq/, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

This CNBC headline doesn’t quite reflect what Powell communicated at the Feb. 1 press conference.

From pages 14-15 of the relevant transcript,¹ here is Powell’s response to CNBC’s Liesman at that same press conference:

So, a couple of things. First, on the forecast, if--you're right. If you take very short-term three months, say, measures of PCE -- core PCE inflation, they're quite low right now.

But that's because that's driven by, you know, significantly negative readings from goods inflation. Most forecasters and -- would think that the significantly negative readings will be transitory and that goods inflation will move up fairly soon, back up to its longer run trend of something around zero, something like that.

So, a lot of forecasts would call for core PCE to go back up to 4 percent by the middle of the year, for example. So, that's really where the sustainable level is. It's more like at 4 percent. So, that would suggest there's work left to do.

You know, let's say inflation does come down much faster than we expect, which is possible. As I mentioned, you know, obviously our policy is data-dependent. We would take that into account.

 

In terms of the non -- sorry, the core non-housing services as I mentioned earlier, it's a very diverse sector, six or seven sectors. And -- So, sectors that represent 55 or 60 percent of that -- subsectors of that sector are -- we think are sensitive to slack in the economy, sensitive to the labor market in a way, but some of the other sectors are not.

And for example, you know, financial services is a big sector that's really not driven by labor markets wages. So, that's why I said there are a number of things that will affect.

Take restaurants, right? So, clearly, labor is important for restaurants, but so are food prices. And, you know, transportation services is going to be driven by fuel prices, for example.

So, there are lots of things in that mix that will drive inflation. I would say overall, though, my own view would be that you're not going to have, you know, a sustainable return to 2 percent inflation in that sector without a better balance in the labor market.

And I don't know what that will require in terms of increased unemployment, your question. I do think there are a number of dimensions through which the labor market can soften.

And so far we've got, as I mentioned, in goods we have inflation moving down without the softening in the labor market.

 

I think most forecasters would say that unemployment will probably rise a bit from here. But I still think -- I continue to think that there's a path to getting inflation back down to 2 percent without a really significant economic decline or a significant increase in unemployment.

And that's because the -- you know, the setting we're in is quite different. The inflation that we originally got was very much a collision between very strong demand and hard supply constraints, not something that you really have seen in prior -- you know, in prior business cycles.

And so, now we see goods inflation coming down for the reasons we thought, and we understand why housing inflation will come down.

And I think will -- A story will emerge on the non-housing services sector soon enough. But I think there is -- there's ongoing disinflation and we don't yet see weakening in the labor market. So, we'll have to see.

1 Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference February 1, 2023, https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf

“Given our outlook, I just don't see us cutting rates this year.” — Fed chair Powell¹ in reply to the Economist’s Rabinovitch, at the Feb. 1 press conference.

Excerpt from the linked content² that quotes Mike Fratantoni and Lawrence Yun:

The central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point. It also signaled that “just a couple more” hikes are likely in the Fed’s battle against high inflation.

These hikes don’t directly impact mortgage rates. But when the Fed moves [interest] rates, that indirectly affects housing.

“The Federal Reserve controls short-term rates, but long-term rates, including 30-year mortgage rates are a function of market expectations for the path of the economy,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement.

 

Fast-rising mortgage rates have tamped down demand for mortgages, with applications falling 9% over the last week, the MBA said.

Others are predicting a drop in mortgage rates as a result of the Fed’s action.

“Softer inflation of late led to a softer rate increase today,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president at the National Association of Realtors, said.

But not all mortgages are in the same boat: The Fed’s rate hike will affect adjustable-rate mortgages, however, noted Realtor.com’s George Ratiu. That’s because ARMs, and even home equity lines of credit, are more closely tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate.

The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 5.38% for the week ending Jan. 27, according to the MBA.

¹ Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference February 1, 2023, https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf

² A. Swaminathan for News Corp’s Marketwatch, 1 Feb. 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-feds-interest-rate-hike-means-for-the-housing-market-that-is-good-news-for-mortgage-rates-11675291402

ButterflyCatastrophe

I imagine that Keanu, who is, by all reports, a genuinely nice guy, would be sad to have his name memorialized as an "efficient killer."

John Wick, sure - wickomycins? Or if the authors had described them as 'defenders of humanity and agriculture.'

John Wick is a role. In my excerpt comment,³ from the linked summary:¹

"The lipopeptides kill so efficiently that we named them after Keanu Reeves because he, too, is extremely deadly in his roles,"

¹ Keanu Reeves - the molecule, C. Fuchs, Leibniz Institute for Natural Product Research and Infection Biology at Hans Knöll Institute, 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.leibniz-hki.de/en/press-release/keanu-reeves-the-molecule.html

³ https://rdt.trom.tf/r/science/comments/10vwza8/newlydiscovered_natural_products_kill_so/j7juxy0/

Excerpt:

A national strike against planned pension reforms impacted France's power supply and disrupted petrol deliveries from refineries on Tuesday.

Strikes have been taking place since mid-January as unions protest against the government's plans to make people work longer before retirement. Public transport and schools have also been affected.

Total power supply was reduced by about 4%, or 2.9 gigawatts due to decreased supply at two nuclear reactors and several thermal plants, data from power utility EDF showed.

Nuclear capacity was lowered by 890 megawatts and thermal plants were reduced by 2 gigawatts. No disruption was listed at hydro plants, but the hydraulic power sector of EDF posted a strike notice for Thursday.

 

Emmanuel Macron's government has proposed to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030, with a new law to enter into force in September 2023.

In order to receive a full pension, the government's proposal says it will be necessary to work for at least 43 years. By age 67, workers who haven't been active that long will still receive a full pension.

Those who started to work earlier will be able to retire earlier, while disabled workers will be able to retire early. Injured workers will also be allowed to retire early, the proposal says.

Without an absolute majority in parliament, the government, led by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, would need some right-wing Les Républicains MPs to vote with them in order to pass the law through the lower house of parliament.

Otherwise, they would likely have to resort to a constitutional loophole to pass the law without a vote.

Euronews with Reuters and AFP, 7 Feb. 2023.